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Ortmann vs Mannersdorf — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Ortmann
Ortmann
CANC
14:30
Mannersdorf
Mannersdorf
4/18/2021Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 22Sportplatz Ortmann BSV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ortmann69%
×Draw18%
Mannersdorf13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ortmann
2.40
Mannersdorf
0.95

Ortmann creates 153% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 41 away

creates per match

Ortmann
1.58
Mannersdorf
0.56

allows per match

Ortmann
1.33
Mannersdorf
3.22

finishing

Ortmann+0.00on par
Mannersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ortmann ↓

Mannersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ortmann or draw
87%
Ortmann or Mannersdorf
82%
Draw or Mannersdorf
31%

Winning margin

Ortmann wins by 2+
46%
Mannersdorf wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ortmann 1+ goals
91%
Ortmann 2+ goals
69%
Ortmann 3+ goals
42%
Mannersdorf 1+ goals
61%
Mannersdorf 2+ goals
25%
Mannersdorf 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ortmann (draw refunded)
84%
Mannersdorf (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ortmann at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 85 matches

Mannersdorf away — creates 0.56, concedes 3.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ortmann attack 1.58 + Mannersdorf defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.40

Mannersdorf attack 0.56 + Ortmann defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Ortmann scores more
69%
level
18%
Mannersdorf scores more
13%

Ortmann at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Ortmann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ortmann host Mannersdorf

April 18, 2021: Ortmann take on Mannersdorf in Landesliga - Niederosterreich. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ortmann host Mannersdorf at Sportplatz Ortmann BSV.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.