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Ortmann vs Kottingbrunn — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Ortmann
Ortmann
FT
0 – 2
Kottingbrunn
Kottingbrunn
5/12/2023Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 25Sportplatz Ortmann BSV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Ortmann39%
×Draw25%
Kottingbrunn35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ortmann
1.43
Kottingbrunn
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 55 away

creates per match

Ortmann
1.58
Kottingbrunn
1.38

allows per match

Ortmann
1.33
Kottingbrunn
1.27

finishing

Ortmann+0.00on par
Kottingbrunn+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ortmann ↓

Kottingbrunn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ortmann or draw
65%
Ortmann or Kottingbrunn
75%
Draw or Kottingbrunn
61%

Winning margin

Ortmann wins by 2+
18%
Kottingbrunn wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ortmann 1+ goals
76%
Ortmann 2+ goals
42%
Ortmann 3+ goals
17%
Kottingbrunn 1+ goals
74%
Kottingbrunn 2+ goals
39%
Kottingbrunn 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ortmann (draw refunded)
52%
Kottingbrunn (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ortmann at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 85 matches

Kottingbrunn away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ortmann attack 1.58 + Kottingbrunn defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kottingbrunn attack 1.38 + Ortmann defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ortmann scores more
39%
level
25%
Kottingbrunn scores more
35%

Ortmann at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ortmann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ortmann vs Kottingbrunn

Kottingbrunn beat Ortmann 2-0 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Ortmann BSV in Neusiedl.