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Orsomarso W vs Santa Fe W — Liga Femenina 2020

Orsomarso W
Orsomarso W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santa Fe W
Santa Fe W
5/9/2022Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 17Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Orsomarso W31%
×Draw28%
Santa Fe W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orsomarso W
1.06
Santa Fe W
1.26

Santa Fe W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 64 away

creates per match

Orsomarso W
1.33
Santa Fe W
1.78

allows per match

Orsomarso W
0.74
Santa Fe W
0.78

finishing

Orsomarso W+0.00on par
Santa Fe W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso W ↓

Santa Fe W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Orsomarso W or draw
59%
Orsomarso W or Santa Fe W
72%
Draw or Santa Fe W
69%

Winning margin

Orsomarso W wins by 2+
12%
Santa Fe W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Orsomarso W 1+ goals
65%
Orsomarso W 2+ goals
29%
Orsomarso W 3+ goals
9%
Santa Fe W 1+ goals
72%
Santa Fe W 2+ goals
36%
Santa Fe W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso W (draw refunded)
43%
Santa Fe W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

Santa Fe W away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.78 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso W attack 1.33 + Santa Fe W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Santa Fe W attack 1.78 + Orsomarso W defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Orsomarso W scores more
31%
level
28%
Santa Fe W scores more
41%

Santa Fe W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Santa Fe W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orsomarso W vs Santa Fe W

Santa Fe W beat Orsomarso W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on May 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.