Orsomarso W 3–0 Once Caldas W: Result & Stats

Orsomarso W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Once Caldas W

4/20/2025

Liga Femenina · Group Stage - 8Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Orsomarso W58%

×Draw27%

Once Caldas W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orsomarso WExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.58

Orsomarso W

1.42

Once Caldas W

0.58

Orsomarso W creates 145% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

1.33

creates per match

0.43

0.74

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Orsomarso W

1.33

Once Caldas W

0.43

allows per match

Orsomarso W

0.74

Once Caldas W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orsomarso W+0.00on par

Once Caldas W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso W ↓

Once Caldas W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Orsomarso W or draw

85%

Orsomarso W or Once Caldas W

73%

Draw or Once Caldas W

42%

Winning margin

Orsomarso W wins by 2+

29%

Once Caldas W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Orsomarso W 1+ goals

76%

Orsomarso W 2+ goals

41%

Orsomarso W 3+ goals

17%

Once Caldas W 1+ goals

44%

Once Caldas W 2+ goals

12%

Once Caldas W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso W (draw refunded)

79%

Once Caldas W (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

Once Caldas W away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso W attack 1.33 + Once Caldas W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Once Caldas W attack 0.43 + Orsomarso W defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Orsomarso W scores more

58%

level

27%

Once Caldas W scores more

15%

Orsomarso W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Orsomarso W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff