Orsomarso W 1–0 Internacional Palmira W

Orsomarso W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional Palmira W

2/23/2025

Liga Femenina · Group Stage - 1Estadio Raúl Miranda Yumbo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Orsomarso W51%

×Draw28%

Internacional Palmira W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orsomarso WExpected goals in this matchInternacional Palmira W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.75

Orsomarso W

1.36

Internacional Palmira W

0.75

Orsomarso W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 25 away

1.33

creates per match

0.76

0.74

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Orsomarso W

1.33

Internacional Palmira W

0.76

allows per match

Orsomarso W

0.74

Internacional Palmira W

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orsomarso W+0.00on par

Internacional Palmira W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso W ↓

Internacional Palmira W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Orsomarso W or draw

79%

Orsomarso W or Internacional Palmira W

72%

Draw or Internacional Palmira W

49%

Winning margin

Orsomarso W wins by 2+

25%

Internacional Palmira W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Orsomarso W 1+ goals

74%

Orsomarso W 2+ goals

39%

Orsomarso W 3+ goals

16%

Internacional Palmira W 1+ goals

53%

Internacional Palmira W 2+ goals

17%

Internacional Palmira W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso W (draw refunded)

71%

Internacional Palmira W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

Internacional Palmira W away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso W attack 1.33 + Internacional Palmira W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Internacional Palmira W attack 0.76 + Orsomarso W defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Orsomarso W scores more

51%

level

28%

Internacional Palmira W scores more

21%

Orsomarso W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Orsomarso W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff