Orsomarso W 2–0 Fortaleza W: Result & Stats

Orsomarso W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fortaleza W

3/9/2025

Liga Femenina · Group Stage - 3Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Orsomarso W59%

×Draw25%

Fortaleza W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orsomarso WExpected goals in this matchFortaleza W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.71

Orsomarso W

1.61

Fortaleza W

0.71

Orsomarso W creates 127% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 30 away

1.33

creates per match

0.67

0.74

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Orsomarso W

1.33

Fortaleza W

0.67

allows per match

Orsomarso W

0.74

Fortaleza W

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orsomarso W+0.00on par

Fortaleza W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso W ↓

Fortaleza W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Orsomarso W or draw

84%

Orsomarso W or Fortaleza W

75%

Draw or Fortaleza W

41%

Winning margin

Orsomarso W wins by 2+

32%

Fortaleza W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Orsomarso W 1+ goals

80%

Orsomarso W 2+ goals

48%

Orsomarso W 3+ goals

22%

Fortaleza W 1+ goals

51%

Fortaleza W 2+ goals

16%

Fortaleza W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso W (draw refunded)

78%

Fortaleza W (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

Fortaleza W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso W attack 1.33 + Fortaleza W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Fortaleza W attack 0.67 + Orsomarso W defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Orsomarso W scores more

59%

level

25%

Fortaleza W scores more

16%

Orsomarso W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Orsomarso W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff