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Orsomarso W vs Deportivo Pasto W — Liga Femenina 2020

Orsomarso W
Orsomarso W
Preview
20:00
Deportivo Pasto W
Deportivo Pasto W
8/9/2026Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Round 16Estadio Municipal Raul Miranda
58%
Orsomarso W
model favours
58%25%17%
1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Orsomarso W58%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Pasto W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orsomarso W
1.56
Deportivo Pasto W
0.71

Orsomarso W creates 120% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

creates per match

Orsomarso W
1.33
Deportivo Pasto W
0.67

allows per match

Orsomarso W
0.74
Deportivo Pasto W
1.79

finishing

Orsomarso W+0.00on par
Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso W ↓

Deportivo Pasto W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Orsomarso W or draw
83%
Orsomarso W or Deportivo Pasto W
75%
Draw or Deportivo Pasto W
42%

Winning margin

Orsomarso W wins by 2+
31%
Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Orsomarso W 1+ goals
79%
Orsomarso W 2+ goals
46%
Orsomarso W 3+ goals
21%
Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals
51%
Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals
16%
Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso W (draw refunded)
77%
Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

Deportivo Pasto W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso W attack 1.33 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Deportivo Pasto W attack 0.67 + Orsomarso W defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Orsomarso W scores more
58%
level
25%
Deportivo Pasto W scores more
17%

Orsomarso W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Orsomarso W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
WLLDD
W
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Orsomarso W host Deportivo Pasto W

August 9, 2026: Orsomarso W take on Deportivo Pasto W in Liga Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Orsomarso W host Deportivo Pasto W at Estadio Municipal Raul Miranda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.