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Deportivo Pasto W vs Orsomarso W — Liga Femenina 2020

Deportivo Pasto W
Deportivo Pasto W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Orsomarso W
Orsomarso W
5/4/2025Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 10Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Deportivo Pasto W35%
×Draw28%
Orsomarso W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto W
1.16
Orsomarso W
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto W
1.13
Orsomarso W
1.04

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto W
1.34
Orsomarso W
1.19

finishing

Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par
Orsomarso W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto W ↓

Orsomarso W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto W or draw
63%
Deportivo Pasto W or Orsomarso W
72%
Draw or Orsomarso W
65%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+
15%
Orsomarso W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals
11%
Orsomarso W 1+ goals
70%
Orsomarso W 2+ goals
33%
Orsomarso W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)
49%
Orsomarso W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Orsomarso W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto W attack 1.13 + Orsomarso W defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Orsomarso W attack 1.04 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Pasto W scores more
35%
level
28%
Orsomarso W scores more
37%

Orsomarso W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Orsomarso W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Pasto W vs Orsomarso W

Orsomarso W beat Deportivo Pasto W 3-2 in Liga Femenina on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Departamental Libertad in Pasto.