Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orsomarso W vs Deportivo Cali W — Liga Femenina 2020

Orsomarso W
Orsomarso W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Cali W
Deportivo Cali W
6/1/2025Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 11Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Orsomarso W37%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Cali W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orsomarso W
1.17
Deportivo Cali W
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 61 away

creates per match

Orsomarso W
1.33
Deportivo Cali W
1.52

allows per match

Orsomarso W
0.74
Deportivo Cali W
1.00

finishing

Orsomarso W+0.00on par
Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso W ↓

Deportivo Cali W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Orsomarso W or draw
65%
Orsomarso W or Deportivo Cali W
72%
Draw or Deportivo Cali W
63%

Winning margin

Orsomarso W wins by 2+
15%
Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Orsomarso W 1+ goals
69%
Orsomarso W 2+ goals
33%
Orsomarso W 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals
31%
Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso W (draw refunded)
51%
Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

Deportivo Cali W away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.00 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso W attack 1.33 + Deportivo Cali W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.52 + Orsomarso W defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Orsomarso W scores more
37%
level
28%
Deportivo Cali W scores more
35%

Orsomarso W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Orsomarso W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orsomarso W vs Deportivo Cali W

Deportivo Cali W beat Orsomarso W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.