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Orsomarso W vs Deportes Tolima W — Liga Femenina 2020

Orsomarso W
Orsomarso W
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Deportes Tolima W
Deportes Tolima W
3/15/2022Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 6Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Orsomarso W62%
×Draw22%
Deportes Tolima W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orsomarso W
1.92
Deportes Tolima W
0.87

Orsomarso W creates 121% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

creates per match

Orsomarso W
1.33
Deportes Tolima W
1.00

allows per match

Orsomarso W
0.74
Deportes Tolima W
2.50

finishing

Orsomarso W+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso W ↓

Deportes Tolima W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Orsomarso W or draw
84%
Orsomarso W or Deportes Tolima W
78%
Draw or Deportes Tolima W
38%

Winning margin

Orsomarso W wins by 2+
37%
Deportes Tolima W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Orsomarso W 1+ goals
85%
Orsomarso W 2+ goals
57%
Orsomarso W 3+ goals
30%
Deportes Tolima W 1+ goals
58%
Deportes Tolima W 2+ goals
22%
Deportes Tolima W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso W (draw refunded)
79%
Deportes Tolima W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

Deportes Tolima W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso W attack 1.33 + Deportes Tolima W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Deportes Tolima W attack 1.00 + Orsomarso W defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Orsomarso W scores more
62%
level
22%
Deportes Tolima W scores more
16%

Orsomarso W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Orsomarso W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orsomarso W vs Deportes Tolima W

Orsomarso W beat Deportes Tolima W 4-2 in Liga Femenina on March 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.