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Orsomarso W vs América de Cali W — Liga Femenina 2020

Orsomarso W
Orsomarso W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
América de Cali W
América de Cali W
3/30/2025Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 6Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Orsomarso W32%
×Draw28%
América de Cali W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orsomarso W
1.10
América de Cali W
1.29

América de Cali W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 60 away

creates per match

Orsomarso W
1.33
América de Cali W
1.85

allows per match

Orsomarso W
0.74
América de Cali W
0.87

finishing

Orsomarso W+0.00on par
América de Cali W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso W ↓

América de Cali W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Orsomarso W or draw
59%
Orsomarso W or América de Cali W
72%
Draw or América de Cali W
68%

Winning margin

Orsomarso W wins by 2+
12%
América de Cali W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Orsomarso W 1+ goals
67%
Orsomarso W 2+ goals
30%
Orsomarso W 3+ goals
10%
América de Cali W 1+ goals
72%
América de Cali W 2+ goals
37%
América de Cali W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso W (draw refunded)
44%
América de Cali W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

América de Cali W away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.87 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso W attack 1.33 + América de Cali W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.10

América de Cali W attack 1.85 + Orsomarso W defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Orsomarso W scores more
32%
level
28%
América de Cali W scores more
41%

América de Cali W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "América de Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Orsomarso W 1–1 América de Cali W

Orsomarso W and América de Cali W drew 1-1 in Liga Femenina on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.