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Orsomarso vs Union Magdalena — Primera B 2018

Orsomarso
Orsomarso
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
10/18/2021Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 13Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Orsomarso33%
×Draw28%
Union Magdalena39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orsomarso
1.08
Union Magdalena
1.21

Union Magdalena creates 12% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 85 away

creates per match

Orsomarso
1.08
Union Magdalena
1.28

allows per match

Orsomarso
1.13
Union Magdalena
1.08

finishing

Orsomarso+0.00on par
Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso ↓

Union Magdalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Orsomarso or draw
61%
Orsomarso or Union Magdalena
72%
Draw or Union Magdalena
67%

Winning margin

Orsomarso wins by 2+
13%
Union Magdalena wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Orsomarso 1+ goals
66%
Orsomarso 2+ goals
29%
Orsomarso 3+ goals
10%
Union Magdalena 1+ goals
70%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
34%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso (draw refunded)
46%
Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso attack 1.08 + Union Magdalena defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Union Magdalena attack 1.28 + Orsomarso defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Orsomarso scores more
33%
level
28%
Union Magdalena scores more
39%

Union Magdalena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Orsomarso 1–2 Union Magdalena

Union Magdalena beat Orsomarso 2-1 in Primera B on October 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.