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Orsomarso vs Real Soacha — Primera B 2018

Orsomarso
Orsomarso
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Soacha
Real Soacha
4/28/2025Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 13Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Orsomarso37%
×Draw29%
Real Soacha33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orsomarso
1.14
Real Soacha
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 56 away

creates per match

Orsomarso
1.08
Real Soacha
1.00

allows per match

Orsomarso
1.13
Real Soacha
1.20

finishing

Orsomarso+0.00on par
Real Soacha+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso ↓

Real Soacha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Orsomarso or draw
67%
Orsomarso or Real Soacha
71%
Draw or Real Soacha
63%

Winning margin

Orsomarso wins by 2+
15%
Real Soacha wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Orsomarso 1+ goals
68%
Orsomarso 2+ goals
32%
Orsomarso 3+ goals
11%
Real Soacha 1+ goals
65%
Real Soacha 2+ goals
29%
Real Soacha 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso (draw refunded)
53%
Real Soacha (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

Real Soacha away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso attack 1.08 + Real Soacha defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Real Soacha attack 1.00 + Orsomarso defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Orsomarso scores more
37%
level
29%
Real Soacha scores more
33%

Orsomarso at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Orsomarso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Orsomarso 0–1 Real Soacha

Real Soacha beat Orsomarso 1-0 in Primera B on April 28, 2025.

The match was played at Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.