Orsomarso 1–0 Jaguares: Result & Stats | Primera B

Orsomarso

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jaguares

A. Ruiz 64'

7/26/2025

Primera B · Clausura - 3Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Orsomarso30%

×Draw28%

Jaguares42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrsomarsoExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.30

Orsomarso

1.06

Jaguares

1.30

Jaguares creates 23% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 23 away

1.11

creates per match

1.48

1.13

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Orsomarso

1.11

Jaguares

1.48

allows per match

Orsomarso

1.13

Jaguares

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orsomarso+0.00on par

Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Orsomarso or draw

58%

Orsomarso or Jaguares

72%

Draw or Jaguares

70%

Winning margin

Orsomarso wins by 2+

12%

Jaguares wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Orsomarso 1+ goals

65%

Orsomarso 2+ goals

29%

Orsomarso 3+ goals

9%

Jaguares 1+ goals

73%

Jaguares 2+ goals

37%

Jaguares 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso (draw refunded)

42%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

Jaguares away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso attack 1.11 + Jaguares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Jaguares attack 1.48 + Orsomarso defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Orsomarso scores more

30%

level

28%

Jaguares scores more

42%

Jaguares at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

34'

38'

46'

46'

54'

58'

N. Rengifo← A. J. Montano Loango

58'

H. Angulo← J. Mena

64'

J. Roa← D. Padilla

64'

A. Ruiz

66'

J. Viveros← J. Andrade

71'

J. Barrios← J. Herrera

72'

79'

Y. Urrutia← D. Barrios

82'

S. Lopez← M. Balanta

83'

86'

90+5'

Orsomarso

Jaguares

1

4

23

30

15

14

26

▼

Padilla

20

▼

Andrade

8

▼

Julio

60

Lenis

7

▼

12

32

2

15

3

▼

Balanta

8

▼

Loango

5

▼

Barrios

11

▼

Mena

10

▼

Caicedo

19

C.

27

Salcedo

Manager: S. Sánchez

46'▲A. Ruiz←▼C. Caicedo

58'▲N. Rengifo←▼A. J. Montano Loango

58'▲H. Angulo←▼J. Mena

79'▲Y. Urrutia←▼D. Barrios

82'▲S. Lopez←▼M. Balanta

Orsomarso substitutes

1Arango6Rengifo9Arrechea13Mena17Angulo18Lopez20Ruiz23Urrutia

Manager: A. Hernández

46'▲D. Reyes←▼J. Julio

64'▲J. Roa←▼D. Padilla

66'▲J. Viveros←▼J. Andrade

71'▲J. Barrios←▼J. Herrera

Jaguares substitutes

12Arroyo31Barrios25Roa18Reyes5Lovera27Perez17Viveros

Primera B: Orsomarso 1–0 Jaguares

Orsomarso beat Jaguares 1-0 in Primera B on July 26, 2025.

Goals: A. Ruiz (64').

The match was played at Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.

Orsomarso vs Jaguares — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Orsomarso 1–0 Jaguares