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Orsomarso vs Internacional Palmira — Primera B 2018

Orsomarso
Orsomarso
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Internacional Palmira
Internacional Palmira
3/29/2025Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 9Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Orsomarso36%
×Draw28%
Internacional Palmira36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orsomarso
1.16
Internacional Palmira
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 49 away

creates per match

Orsomarso
1.08
Internacional Palmira
1.16

allows per match

Orsomarso
1.13
Internacional Palmira
1.24

finishing

Orsomarso+0.00on par
Internacional Palmira+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso ↓

Internacional Palmira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Orsomarso or draw
64%
Orsomarso or Internacional Palmira
72%
Draw or Internacional Palmira
64%

Winning margin

Orsomarso wins by 2+
15%
Internacional Palmira wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Orsomarso 1+ goals
69%
Orsomarso 2+ goals
32%
Orsomarso 3+ goals
11%
Internacional Palmira 1+ goals
68%
Internacional Palmira 2+ goals
32%
Internacional Palmira 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso (draw refunded)
50%
Internacional Palmira (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

Internacional Palmira away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso attack 1.08 + Internacional Palmira defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Internacional Palmira attack 1.16 + Orsomarso defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Orsomarso scores more
36%
level
28%
Internacional Palmira scores more
36%

Orsomarso at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Orsomarso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orsomarso vs Internacional Palmira

Internacional Palmira beat Orsomarso 2-0 in Primera B on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.