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Orsomarso vs Independiente Medellin — Copa Colombia 2026

Orsomarso
Orsomarso
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
S. Arrechea 27'
J. Montano 39'
5/16/2026Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Group Stage - 3Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Orsomarso30%
×Draw27%
Independiente Medellin43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orsomarso
1.08
Independiente Medellin
1.34

Independiente Medellin creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 23 away

creates per match

Orsomarso
1.13
Independiente Medellin
1.61

allows per match

Orsomarso
1.07
Independiente Medellin
1.04

finishing

Orsomarso+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Orsomarso or draw
57%
Orsomarso or Independiente Medellin
73%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
70%

Winning margin

Orsomarso wins by 2+
12%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Orsomarso 1+ goals
66%
Orsomarso 2+ goals
29%
Orsomarso 3+ goals
10%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
74%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
39%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso (draw refunded)
41%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso attack 1.13 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Independiente Medellin attack 1.61 + Orsomarso defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Orsomarso scores more
30%
level
27%
Independiente Medellin scores more
43%

Independiente Medellin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
S. Arrechea
39'
J. Montano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Orsomarso 1–1 Independiente Medellin

Orsomarso and Independiente Medellin drew 1-1 in Copa Colombia on May 16, 2026.

Goals: S. Arrechea (27'), J. Montano (39').

The match was played at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata in Barrancabermeja.