Orsomarso 1–0 Depor FC: Result & Stats | Primera B

Orsomarso

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Depor FC

8/31/2024

Primera B · Clausura - 8Estadio Municipal Hernando Azcárate Martínez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Orsomarso45%

×Draw27%

Depor FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrsomarsoExpected goals in this matchDepor FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.00

Orsomarso

1.35

Depor FC

1.00

Orsomarso creates 35% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 128 away

1.08

creates per match

0.88

1.13

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Orsomarso

1.08

Depor FC

0.88

allows per match

Orsomarso

1.13

Depor FC

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orsomarso+0.00on par

Depor FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso ↓

Depor FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Orsomarso or draw

72%

Orsomarso or Depor FC

73%

Draw or Depor FC

55%

Winning margin

Orsomarso wins by 2+

21%

Depor FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Orsomarso 1+ goals

74%

Orsomarso 2+ goals

39%

Orsomarso 3+ goals

15%

Depor FC 1+ goals

63%

Depor FC 2+ goals

26%

Depor FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso (draw refunded)

62%

Depor FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

Depor FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso attack 1.08 + Depor FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Depor FC attack 0.88 + Orsomarso defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Orsomarso scores more

45%

level

27%

Depor FC scores more

28%

Orsomarso at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Orsomarso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff