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Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Wólczanka W. Pełkińska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
FT
1 – 6
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
9/23/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski43%
×Draw23%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.71
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.50

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski creates 14% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 37 away

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.34
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.38

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.62
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
2.08

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw
66%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
77%
Draw or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
57%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
22%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
82%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
51%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
24%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
78%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
44%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
56%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.71

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.38 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
43%
level
23%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
34%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1–6 Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska beat Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 6-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Radzyń Podlaski.