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Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Star Starachowice — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice
10/21/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski33%
×Draw25%
Star Starachowice42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.31
Star Starachowice
1.52

Star Starachowice creates 16% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 51 away

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.34
Star Starachowice
1.41

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.62
Star Starachowice
1.27

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par
Star Starachowice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Star Starachowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw
58%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Star Starachowice
75%
Draw or Star Starachowice
67%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
14%
Star Starachowice wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
73%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
38%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
14%
Star Starachowice 1+ goals
78%
Star Starachowice 2+ goals
45%
Star Starachowice 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
44%
Star Starachowice (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Star Starachowice away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Star Starachowice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Star Starachowice attack 1.41 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
33%
level
25%
Star Starachowice scores more
42%

Star Starachowice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Star Starachowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 0–2 Star Starachowice

Star Starachowice beat Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Radzyń Podlaski.