Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Stal Stalowa Wola — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
11/5/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski28%
×Draw24%
Stal Stalowa Wola48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.21
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.68

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 39% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 54 away

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.34
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.74

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.62
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.07

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par
Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw
52%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Stal Stalowa Wola
76%
Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola
72%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
11%
Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
70%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
34%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
12%
Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
81%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
50%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
36%
Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.74 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
28%
level
24%
Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
48%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Stal Stalowa Wola

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski beat Stal Stalowa Wola 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Radzyń Podlaski.