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Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Stal Kraśnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
FT
1 – 3
Stal Kraśnik
Stal Kraśnik
10/4/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski37%
×Draw26%
Stal Kraśnik37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.35
Stal Kraśnik
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 36 away

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.34
Stal Kraśnik
1.08

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.62
Stal Kraśnik
1.36

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par
Stal Kraśnik+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Stal Kraśnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw
63%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Stal Kraśnik
74%
Draw or Stal Kraśnik
63%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
17%
Stal Kraśnik wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
74%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
39%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
15%
Stal Kraśnik 1+ goals
74%
Stal Kraśnik 2+ goals
39%
Stal Kraśnik 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
50%
Stal Kraśnik (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Stal Kraśnik away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Stal Kraśnik defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Stal Kraśnik attack 1.08 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
37%
level
26%
Stal Kraśnik scores more
37%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Stal Kraśnik

Stal Kraśnik beat Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Radzyń Podlaski.