Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 0–3 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

10/7/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski32%

×Draw25%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlęta Radzyń PodlaskiExpected goals in this matchSiarka Tarnobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.58

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.31

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.58

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 21% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 89 away

1.34

creates per match

1.53

1.62

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.34

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.53

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.62

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw

56%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

75%

Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

68%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+

14%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals

73%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals

38%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals

14%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals

79%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals

47%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)

42%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more

32%

level

25%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more

44%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff