Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3–2 Podhale Nowy Targ

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Podhale Nowy Targ

4/29/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski36%

×Draw25%

Podhale Nowy Targ39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlęta Radzyń PodlaskiExpected goals in this matchPodhale Nowy Targ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.50

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.42

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 86 away

1.34

creates per match

1.38

1.62

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.34

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.38

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.62

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Podhale Nowy Targ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw

61%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Podhale Nowy Targ

75%

Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ

64%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+

17%

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals

76%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals

41%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals

17%

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals

78%

Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals

44%

Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)

48%

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.38 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more

36%

level

25%

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more

39%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff