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Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Korona Rzeszow — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Korona Rzeszow
Korona Rzeszow
4/16/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 24Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski46%
×Draw23%
Korona Rzeszow31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.79
Korona Rzeszow
1.43

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski creates 25% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 17 away

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.34
Korona Rzeszow
1.24

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.62
Korona Rzeszow
2.24

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par
Korona Rzeszow+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Korona Rzeszow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw
69%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Korona Rzeszow
77%
Draw or Korona Rzeszow
54%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
25%
Korona Rzeszow wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
83%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
53%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
26%
Korona Rzeszow 1+ goals
76%
Korona Rzeszow 2+ goals
42%
Korona Rzeszow 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
60%
Korona Rzeszow (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Korona Rzeszow away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Korona Rzeszow defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.79

Korona Rzeszow attack 1.24 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
46%
level
23%
Korona Rzeszow scores more
31%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 4–2 Korona Rzeszow

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski beat Korona Rzeszow 4-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Radzyń Podlaski.