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Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Garbarnia Kraków — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
6/1/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski42%
×Draw24%
Garbarnia Kraków34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.64
Garbarnia Kraków
1.46

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski creates 12% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 17 away

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.34
Garbarnia Kraków
1.29

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.62
Garbarnia Kraków
1.94

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw
66%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Garbarnia Kraków
76%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
58%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
21%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
81%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
49%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
23%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
77%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
43%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
55%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.64

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.29 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
42%
level
24%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
34%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Garbarnia Kraków

Garbarnia Kraków beat Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Radzyń Podlaski.