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Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Avia Świdnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
FT
1 – 1
Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
4/15/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 24Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski27%
×Draw24%
Avia Świdnik49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.23
Avia Świdnik
1.75

Avia Świdnik creates 42% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 104 away

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.34
Avia Świdnik
1.89

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.62
Avia Świdnik
1.12

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par
Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Avia Świdnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw
51%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Avia Świdnik
76%
Draw or Avia Świdnik
73%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
11%
Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
71%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
35%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
13%
Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
83%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
52%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
35%
Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
27%
level
24%
Avia Świdnik scores more
49%

Avia Świdnik at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1–1 Avia Świdnik

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski and Avia Świdnik drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Radzyń Podlaski.