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Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Łagów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
FT
4 – 1
Łagów
Łagów
10/23/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski30%
×Draw26%
Łagów44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.18
Łagów
1.49

Łagów creates 26% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 45 away

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.34
Łagów
1.36

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.62
Łagów
1.02

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par
Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Łagów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw
56%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Łagów
74%
Draw or Łagów
70%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
12%
Łagów wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
69%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
33%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
12%
Łagów 1+ goals
77%
Łagów 2+ goals
44%
Łagów 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
40%
Łagów (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

Łagów attack 1.36 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
30%
level
26%
Łagów scores more
44%

Łagów at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 4–1 Łagów

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski beat Łagów 4-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Radzyń Podlaski.