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Orleans vs UNFP — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Orleans
Orleans
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
UNFP
UNFP
7/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Orleans47%
×Draw24%
UNFP29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orleans
1.69
UNFP
1.28

Orleans creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

Orleans
1.20
UNFP
1.17

allows per match

Orleans
1.40
UNFP
2.17

finishing

Orleans+0.00on par
UNFP+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orleans ↓

UNFP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Orleans or draw
71%
Orleans or UNFP
76%
Draw or UNFP
53%

Winning margin

Orleans wins by 2+
25%
UNFP wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Orleans 1+ goals
82%
Orleans 2+ goals
50%
Orleans 3+ goals
24%
UNFP 1+ goals
72%
UNFP 2+ goals
37%
UNFP 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Orleans (draw refunded)
62%
UNFP (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orleans at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

UNFP away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orleans attack 1.20 + UNFP defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.69

UNFP attack 1.17 + Orleans defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Orleans scores more
47%
level
24%
UNFP scores more
29%

Orleans at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Orleans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orleans vs UNFP

UNFP beat Orleans 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2024.