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Orleans vs Paris Saint Germain — Coupe de France 2018

Orleans
Orleans
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germainadvanced
1/20/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 32Stade de la Source

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Orleans14%
×Draw17%
Paris Saint Germain69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orleans
1.13
Paris Saint Germain
2.66

Paris Saint Germain creates 135% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

creates per match

Orleans
1.75
Paris Saint Germain
3.82

allows per match

Orleans
1.50
Paris Saint Germain
0.50

finishing

Orleans+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orleans ↓

Paris Saint Germain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Orleans or draw
31%
Orleans or Paris Saint Germain
83%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain
86%

Winning margin

Orleans wins by 2+
5%
Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Orleans 1+ goals
68%
Orleans 2+ goals
31%
Orleans 3+ goals
11%
Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
93%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
74%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Orleans (draw refunded)
17%
Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orleans at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Paris Saint Germain away — creates 3.82, concedes 0.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orleans attack 1.75 + Paris Saint Germain defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Paris Saint Germain attack 3.82 + Orleans defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Orleans scores more
14%
level
17%
Paris Saint Germain scores more
69%

Paris Saint Germain at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Orleans 1–4 Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain beat Orleans 4-1 in Coupe de France on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Source in Orléans.