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Orleans vs Nimes — Coupe de France 2018

Orleans
Orleansadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nimes
Nimes
1/6/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade Marcel-Garcin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Orleans44%
×Draw23%
Nimes33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orleans
1.77
Nimes
1.50

Orleans creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Orleans
1.75
Nimes
1.50

allows per match

Orleans
1.50
Nimes
1.80

finishing

Orleans+0.00on par
Nimes+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orleans ↓

Nimes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Orleans or draw
67%
Orleans or Nimes
77%
Draw or Nimes
56%

Winning margin

Orleans wins by 2+
23%
Nimes wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Orleans 1+ goals
83%
Orleans 2+ goals
53%
Orleans 3+ goals
26%
Nimes 1+ goals
78%
Nimes 2+ goals
44%
Nimes 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Orleans (draw refunded)
57%
Nimes (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orleans at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Nimes away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orleans attack 1.75 + Nimes defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Nimes attack 1.50 + Orleans defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Orleans scores more
44%
level
23%
Nimes scores more
33%

Orleans at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Orleans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orleans vs Nimes

Orleans beat Nimes 2-1 in Coupe de France on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Marcel-Garcin in Orléans.