Orleans 1–1 Auxerre: Result & Stats

Orleans

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Auxerre

7/19/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade de la Source

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Orleans37%

×Draw27%

Auxerre37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrleansExpected goals in this matchAuxerre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

Orleans

1.27

Auxerre

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.14

creates per match

1.40

1.14

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Orleans

1.14

Auxerre

1.40

allows per match

Orleans

1.14

Auxerre

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orleans+0.00on par

Auxerre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orleans ↓

Auxerre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Orleans or draw

63%

Orleans or Auxerre

73%

Draw or Auxerre

63%

Winning margin

Orleans wins by 2+

16%

Auxerre wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Orleans 1+ goals

72%

Orleans 2+ goals

36%

Orleans 3+ goals

14%

Auxerre 1+ goals

72%

Auxerre 2+ goals

36%

Auxerre 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Orleans (draw refunded)

50%

Auxerre (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orleans at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Auxerre away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orleans attack 1.14 + Auxerre defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Auxerre attack 1.40 + Orleans defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Orleans scores more

37%

level

27%

Auxerre scores more

37%

Orleans at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Orleans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff