Orlando Pride W 0–1 Washington Spirit W

Orlando Pride W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Washington Spirit W

G. Monday 63'

4/19/2025

NWSL Women · Round 5Inter&Co Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Orlando Pride W38%

×Draw28%

Washington Spirit W34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando Pride WExpected goals in this matchWashington Spirit W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Orlando Pride W

1.23

Washington Spirit W

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 25 away

1.58

creates per match

1.40

0.89

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Orlando Pride W

1.58

Washington Spirit W

1.40

allows per match

Orlando Pride W

0.89

Washington Spirit W

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlando Pride W+0.00on par

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pride W ↓

Washington Spirit W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Orlando Pride W or draw

66%

Orlando Pride W or Washington Spirit W

72%

Draw or Washington Spirit W

62%

Winning margin

Orlando Pride W wins by 2+

16%

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Orlando Pride W 1+ goals

71%

Orlando Pride W 2+ goals

35%

Orlando Pride W 3+ goals

13%

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

68%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

32%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pride W (draw refunded)

53%

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pride W at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

Washington Spirit W away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pride W attack 1.58 + Washington Spirit W defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.23

Washington Spirit W attack 1.40 + Orlando Pride W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Orlando Pride W scores more

38%

level

28%

Washington Spirit W scores more

34%

Orlando Pride W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Orlando Pride W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Kingsbury

Washington Spirit W · G

8.6

Match Events

46'

C. Dyke← O. Hernandez

46'

L. Santos← C. Brown

60'

R. Kouassi← A. Hatch

63'

G. Monday

69'

A. Lemos← H. McCutcheon

69'

P. Chilufya← A. Watt

79'

C. Pickett← M. Gautrat

81'

K. Sylla← H. Stainbrook

81'

C. Ricketts← G. Monday

84'

Gabrielle CarleGoal cancelled

85'

G. Chanda← Angelina

90+4'

Ally Lemos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrlandoWashington

Overview

60%Possession40%

20Total Shots9

11Corners1

11Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots9

6On Target2

6Off Target3

8Blocked4

14Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

432Total Passes297

355Accurate Passes227

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0