Orlando Pirates 2–0 Maritzburg Utd: Result & Stats

Orlando Pirates

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Maritzburg Utd

4/18/2021

Premier Soccer League · Round 18Orlando Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Orlando Pirates53%

×Draw28%

Maritzburg Utd18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando PiratesExpected goals in this matchMaritzburg Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.67

Orlando Pirates

1.36

Maritzburg Utd

0.67

Orlando Pirates creates 103% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 77 away

1.56

creates per match

0.64

0.70

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Orlando Pirates

1.56

Maritzburg Utd

0.64

allows per match

Orlando Pirates

0.70

Maritzburg Utd

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pirates ↓

Maritzburg Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Orlando Pirates or draw

82%

Orlando Pirates or Maritzburg Utd

72%

Draw or Maritzburg Utd

47%

Winning margin

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+

26%

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals

74%

Orlando Pirates 2+ goals

39%

Orlando Pirates 3+ goals

16%

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals

49%

Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals

15%

Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)

74%

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pirates at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.70 · 119 matches

Maritzburg Utd away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pirates attack 1.56 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.36

Maritzburg Utd attack 0.64 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Orlando Pirates scores more

53%

level

28%

Maritzburg Utd scores more

18%

Orlando Pirates at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff