Orlando Pirates 2–1 Mamelodi Sundowns

Orlando Pirates

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Mamelodi Sundowns

3/16/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 18First National Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Orlando Pirates35%

×Draw29%

Mamelodi Sundowns36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando PiratesExpected goals in this matchMamelodi Sundowns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.12

Orlando Pirates

1.09

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

1.56

creates per match

1.54

0.70

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Orlando Pirates

1.56

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.54

allows per match

Orlando Pirates

0.70

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pirates ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Orlando Pirates or draw

64%

Orlando Pirates or Mamelodi Sundowns

71%

Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns

65%

Winning margin

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+

14%

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals

66%

Orlando Pirates 2+ goals

30%

Orlando Pirates 3+ goals

10%

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

67%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

31%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)

49%

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pirates at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.70 · 119 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pirates attack 1.56 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.09

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.54 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Orlando Pirates scores more

35%

level

29%

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

36%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff