Orlando Pirates 1–1 Highlands Park FC

Orlando Pirates

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Highlands Park FC

8/4/2018

Premier Soccer League · Round 1Orlando Stadium (Johannesburg, GA)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Orlando Pirates52%

×Draw28%

Highlands Park FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando PiratesExpected goals in this matchHighlands Park FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.76

Orlando Pirates

1.38

Highlands Park FC

0.76

Orlando Pirates creates 82% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 30 away

1.56

creates per match

0.83

0.70

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Orlando Pirates

1.56

Highlands Park FC

0.83

allows per match

Orlando Pirates

0.70

Highlands Park FC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Highlands Park FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pirates ↓

Highlands Park FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Orlando Pirates or draw

79%

Orlando Pirates or Highlands Park FC

72%

Draw or Highlands Park FC

48%

Winning margin

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+

25%

Highlands Park FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals

75%

Orlando Pirates 2+ goals

40%

Orlando Pirates 3+ goals

16%

Highlands Park FC 1+ goals

53%

Highlands Park FC 2+ goals

18%

Highlands Park FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)

71%

Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pirates at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.70 · 119 matches

Highlands Park FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pirates attack 1.56 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Highlands Park FC attack 0.83 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Orlando Pirates scores more

52%

level

28%

Highlands Park FC scores more

21%

Orlando Pirates at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff