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Orlando Pirates vs Black Leopards — Premier Soccer League 2018

Orlando Pirates
Orlando Pirates
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Black Leopards
Black Leopards
12/21/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 12Orlando Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Orlando Pirates59%
×Draw24%
Black Leopards17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlando Pirates
1.69
Black Leopards
0.78

Orlando Pirates creates 117% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 47 away

creates per match

Orlando Pirates
1.56
Black Leopards
0.87

allows per match

Orlando Pirates
0.70
Black Leopards
1.81

finishing

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par
Black Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pirates ↓

Black Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Orlando Pirates or draw
83%
Orlando Pirates or Black Leopards
76%
Draw or Black Leopards
41%

Winning margin

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+
33%
Black Leopards wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals
82%
Orlando Pirates 2+ goals
50%
Orlando Pirates 3+ goals
24%
Black Leopards 1+ goals
54%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
18%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)
78%
Black Leopards (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pirates at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.70 · 119 matches

Black Leopards away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pirates attack 1.56 + Black Leopards defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.69

Black Leopards attack 0.87 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Orlando Pirates scores more
59%
level
24%
Black Leopards scores more
17%

Orlando Pirates at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Orlando Pirates 3–1 Black Leopards

Orlando Pirates beat Black Leopards 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Orlando Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.