Orlando Pirates 1–1 Ajax Cape Town: Result & Stats

Orlando Pirates

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ajax Cape Town

3/6/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 15Orlando Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Orlando Pirates54%

×Draw27%

Ajax Cape Town20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando PiratesExpected goals in this matchAjax Cape Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.77

Orlando Pirates

1.47

Ajax Cape Town

0.77

Orlando Pirates creates 91% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 19 away

1.56

creates per match

0.84

0.70

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Orlando Pirates

1.56

Ajax Cape Town

0.84

allows per match

Orlando Pirates

0.70

Ajax Cape Town

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pirates ↓

Ajax Cape Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Orlando Pirates or draw

80%

Orlando Pirates or Ajax Cape Town

73%

Draw or Ajax Cape Town

46%

Winning margin

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+

27%

Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals

77%

Orlando Pirates 2+ goals

43%

Orlando Pirates 3+ goals

18%

Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals

54%

Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals

18%

Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)

73%

Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pirates at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.70 · 119 matches

Ajax Cape Town away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pirates attack 1.56 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.84 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Orlando Pirates scores more

54%

level

27%

Ajax Cape Town scores more

20%

Orlando Pirates at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff