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Podravac Virje vs Polet — Third NL - Sjever 2019

Podravac Virje
Podravac Virje
CANC
00:00
Polet
Polet
3/14/2020Third NL - SjeverThird NL - Sjever · North - 17Sportski Park Podravac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Podravac Virje60%
×Draw20%
Polet20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podravac Virje
2.29
Polet
1.25

Podravac Virje creates 83% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Podravac Virje
3.33
Polet
1.50

allows per match

Podravac Virje
1.00
Polet
1.25

finishing

Podravac Virje+0.00on par
Polet+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podravac Virje ↓

Polet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Podravac Virje or draw
80%
Podravac Virje or Polet
80%
Draw or Polet
40%

Winning margin

Podravac Virje wins by 2+
38%
Polet wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Podravac Virje 1+ goals
90%
Podravac Virje 2+ goals
66%
Podravac Virje 3+ goals
40%
Polet 1+ goals
71%
Polet 2+ goals
36%
Polet 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Podravac Virje (draw refunded)
75%
Polet (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podravac Virje at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Polet away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podravac Virje attack 3.33 + Polet defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

Polet attack 1.50 + Podravac Virje defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Podravac Virje scores more
60%
level
20%
Polet scores more
20%

Podravac Virje at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Podravac Virje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Podravac Virje face Polet (Third NL - Sjever)

Third NL - Sjever returns with Podravac Virje hosting Polet. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Podravac Virje host Polet at Sportski Park Podravac.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.