Estoril 0–2 Feirense: Result & Stats

Estoril

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Feirense

A. Karamanos 81'

Platiny 9'

8/15/2016

Primeira Liga · Round 1Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Estoril52%

×Draw25%

Feirense23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstorilExpected goals in this matchFeirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.98

Estoril

1.59

Feirense

0.98

Estoril creates 62% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 16 away

1.37

creates per match

0.63

1.32

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Estoril

1.37

Feirense

0.63

allows per match

Estoril

1.32

Feirense

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estoril+0.00on par

Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril ↓

Feirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Estoril or draw

77%

Estoril or Feirense

75%

Draw or Feirense

48%

Winning margin

Estoril wins by 2+

27%

Feirense wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Estoril 1+ goals

80%

Estoril 2+ goals

47%

Estoril 3+ goals

21%

Feirense 1+ goals

62%

Feirense 2+ goals

26%

Feirense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Estoril (draw refunded)

69%

Feirense (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.32 · 87 matches

Feirense away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril attack 1.37 + Feirense defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.59

Feirense attack 0.63 + Estoril defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Estoril scores more

52%

level

25%

Feirense scores more

23%

Estoril at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Estoril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Mattheus

Estoril · M

7.5

Match Events

9'

Platiny↳ Luís Aurélio

46'

Kléber← Dankler

61'

Luís Machado← Vítor Bruno

63'

D. Yarchuk← Mano

69'

K. Bazelyuk← Gustavo Tocantins

78'

A. Karamanos← Fabinho

81'

A. Karamanos↳ Luís Aurélio

82'

Kleber

90+2'

Flavio← Platiny

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstorilFeirense

Overview

67%Possession33%

13Total Shots8

5Corners7

12Fouls24

Shots

13Total Shots8

1On Target3

5Off Target3

7Blocked2

3Inside Box4

10Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

590Total Passes271

464Accurate Passes162

79%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls24

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4