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Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC — League #301 2026

Al-Dhafra
Al-Dhafra
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
Welliton 49'
Coronado 40'
Ryan Mendes 37', 15'
8/30/2018League #301League #301 · Round 1Hamdan bin Zayed Al Nahyan Stadium (Madinat Zaid)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al-Dhafra28%
×Draw23%
Sharjah FC50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Dhafra
1.31
Sharjah FC
1.83

Sharjah FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 8 away

creates per match

Al-Dhafra
1.25
Sharjah FC
1.75

allows per match

Al-Dhafra
1.92
Sharjah FC
1.38

finishing

Al-Dhafra+0.00on par
Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Dhafra ↓

Sharjah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Al-Dhafra or draw
50%
Al-Dhafra or Sharjah FC
77%
Draw or Sharjah FC
72%

Winning margin

Al-Dhafra wins by 2+
12%
Sharjah FC wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Al-Dhafra 1+ goals
73%
Al-Dhafra 2+ goals
38%
Al-Dhafra 3+ goals
14%
Sharjah FC 1+ goals
84%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
54%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)
36%
Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Dhafra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches

Sharjah FC away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Dhafra attack 1.25 + Sharjah FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sharjah FC attack 1.75 + Al-Dhafra defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Dhafra scores more
28%
level
23%
Sharjah FC scores more
50%

Sharjah FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sharjah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Ryan Mendes↳ Coronado
37'
Ryan Mendes
40'
Coronado↳ Ryan Mendes
46'
Abdullah Abdulqader← Sultan Al Suwaidi
46'
Khalid Bawazir← Suhail Al Mansoori
49'
Welliton↳ Coronado
78'
Omar Juma← Saif Rashid Nasir
86'
Mohammed Al Hammadi← Guedes
87'
Mohammed Salem← Shahin Abdulrahman
88'
Hamad Ebrahim Abdulrahman← Muhain Khalifa Muhain

League #301: Al-Dhafra 0–4 Sharjah FC

Sharjah FC beat Al-Dhafra 4-0 in League #301 on August 30, 2018.

Goals: Ryan Mendes (15', 37'), Coronado (40'), Welliton (49').

The match was played at Hamdan bin Zayed Al Nahyan Stadium (Madinat Zaid).