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Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC — League #301 2026

Al-Dhafra
Al-Dhafra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
Caio Lucas 87' (pen)
11/5/2022League #301League #301 · Round 9Al Dhafra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al-Dhafra40%
×Draw28%
Sharjah FC32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Dhafra
1.27
Sharjah FC
1.11

Al-Dhafra creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Al-Dhafra
1.14
Sharjah FC
0.80

allows per match

Al-Dhafra
1.43
Sharjah FC
1.40

finishing

Al-Dhafra+0.00on par
Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Dhafra ↓

Sharjah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al-Dhafra or draw
68%
Al-Dhafra or Sharjah FC
72%
Draw or Sharjah FC
60%

Winning margin

Al-Dhafra wins by 2+
18%
Sharjah FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al-Dhafra 1+ goals
72%
Al-Dhafra 2+ goals
36%
Al-Dhafra 3+ goals
14%
Sharjah FC 1+ goals
67%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
30%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)
55%
Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Dhafra at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Sharjah FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Dhafra attack 1.14 + Sharjah FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sharjah FC attack 0.80 + Al-Dhafra defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al-Dhafra scores more
40%
level
28%
Sharjah FC scores more
32%

Al-Dhafra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al-Dhafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Mohamed Rayhi
55'
Caio
60'
Mohamed Al Junaibi← Ahmed Fawzi
61'
Rashed Muhayer← Mohamed Jalal
68'
M. Diop← Luanzinho
78'
Sultan Al Ghafri← W. Karoui
83'
Majed Hassan← Mohammad Abdulbasit
83'
Salem Sultan← Khalid Bawazir
83'
O. Camara← K. Manolas
87'
Caio LucasPenalty
90+1'
Ali Eid Ghumail← M. Rayhi
90+2'
Majid Rashid← Paco Alcácer

Shots

5Al-Dhafra

Statistics

Al-DhafraSharjah
Overview
5Total Shots12
3Corners8
15Fouls11
Shots
5Total Shots12
1On Target4
3Off Target5
1Blocked3
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1

League #301: Al-Dhafra 0–1 Sharjah FC

Sharjah FC beat Al-Dhafra 1-0 in League #301 on November 5, 2022.

Goals: Caio Lucas (87' pen).

The match was played at Al Dhafra Stadium in Madinat Zaid.