Orlando City SC 2–3 Minnesota United FC

Orlando City SC

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Minnesota United FC

D. McGuire 83', 1'

B. Hlongwane 90+5'

T. Pukki 38', 4'

3/10/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 4Inter&Co Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Orlando City SC43%

×Draw23%

Minnesota United FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando City SCExpected goals in this matchMinnesota United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.48

Orlando City SC

1.71

Minnesota United FC

1.48

Orlando City SC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 24 away

1.78

creates per match

1.21

1.76

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Orlando City SC

1.78

Minnesota United FC

1.21

allows per match

Orlando City SC

1.76

Minnesota United FC

1.65

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Orlando City SC-0.05on par

Minnesota United FC+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando City SC ↓

Minnesota United FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Orlando City SC or draw

67%

Orlando City SC or Minnesota United FC

77%

Draw or Minnesota United FC

57%

Winning margin

Orlando City SC wins by 2+

23%

Minnesota United FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Orlando City SC 1+ goals

82%

Orlando City SC 2+ goals

51%

Orlando City SC 3+ goals

24%

Minnesota United FC 1+ goals

77%

Minnesota United FC 2+ goals

43%

Minnesota United FC 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Orlando City SC (draw refunded)

56%

Minnesota United FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando City SC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.76 · 15 matches

Minnesota United FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.65 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando City SC attack 1.78 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Minnesota United FC attack 1.21 + Orlando City SC defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Orlando City SC scores more

43%

level

23%

Minnesota United FC scores more

33%

Orlando City SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Orlando City SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

T. Pukki

Minnesota United FC · F

8.5

Match Events

1'

D. McGuire↳ Rafael Santos

4'

T. Pukki

32'

W. Trapp

35'

Felipe Martins

38'

T. Pukki↳ R. Lod

40'

W. Cartagena← C. Araújo

43'

M. Boxall

46'

N. Lodeiro← Felipe Martins

54'

L. Muriel← I. Angulo

54'

M. Halliday← D. Þórhallsson

54'

K. Arriaga← R. Lod

54'

T. Oluwaseyi← C. Clark

66'

B. Hlongwane← T. Pukki

70'

D. Taylor

77'

J. Adebayo-Smith← Jeong Sang-Bin

77'

Z. Valentin← D. Taylor

79'

83'

87'

90+2'

90+6'

90+5'

B. Hlongwane↳ T. Oluwaseyi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrlandoMinnesota

Overview

59%Possession41%

22Total Shots9

3.60Expected Goals (xG)1.24

8Corners4

7Fouls14

Shots

22Total Shots9

6On Target4

12Off Target3

4Blocked2

14Inside Box5

8Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

448Total Passes324

361Accurate Passes232

81%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls14

1Yellow Cards6

1Offsides3