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Orlando City SC vs CF Montreal — Major League Soccer 2018

Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
CF Montreal
CF Montreal
10/20/2021Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 40Exploria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Orlando City SC43%
×Draw23%
CF Montreal34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlando City SC
1.77
CF Montreal
1.57

Orlando City SC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Orlando City SC
1.78
CF Montreal
1.39

allows per match

Orlando City SC
1.76
CF Montreal
1.76

finishing

Orlando City SC-0.05on par
CF Montreal+0.18scores more

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando City SC ↓

CF Montreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Orlando City SC or draw
66%
Orlando City SC or CF Montreal
77%
Draw or CF Montreal
57%

Winning margin

Orlando City SC wins by 2+
23%
CF Montreal wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Orlando City SC 1+ goals
83%
Orlando City SC 2+ goals
53%
Orlando City SC 3+ goals
26%
CF Montreal 1+ goals
79%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
46%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Orlando City SC (draw refunded)
55%
CF Montreal (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando City SC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.76 · 15 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando City SC attack 1.78 + CF Montreal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + Orlando City SC defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Orlando City SC scores more
43%
level
23%
CF Montreal scores more
34%

Orlando City SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Orlando City SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Orlando City SC 1–1 CF Montreal

Orlando City SC and CF Montreal drew 1-1 in Major League Soccer on October 20, 2021.

The match was played at Exploria Stadium in Orlando, Florida.