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CF Montreal vs Orlando City SC — Major League Soccer 2018

CF Montreal
CF Montreal
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC
4/20/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 13Stade Saputo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

CF Montreal41%
×Draw24%
Orlando City SC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Montreal
1.55
Orlando City SC
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 22 away

creates per match

CF Montreal
1.14
Orlando City SC
1.38

allows per match

CF Montreal
1.46
Orlando City SC
1.97

finishing

CF Montreal-0.14scores less
Orlando City SC+0.03on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

Orlando City SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw
65%
CF Montreal or Orlando City SC
76%
Draw or Orlando City SC
59%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+
20%
Orlando City SC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals
79%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
46%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
20%
Orlando City SC 1+ goals
76%
Orlando City SC 2+ goals
41%
Orlando City SC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)
54%
Orlando City SC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 14 matches

Orlando City SC away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.97 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.14 + Orlando City SC defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.55

Orlando City SC attack 1.38 + CF Montreal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CF Montreal scores more
41%
level
24%
Orlando City SC scores more
35%

CF Montreal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CF Montreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CF Montreal vs Orlando City SC

CF Montreal and Orlando City SC drew 2-2 in Major League Soccer on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Saputo in Montreal, Quebec.