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Orlando City SC vs Austin — Major League Soccer 2026

Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Austin
Austin
3/23/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 7Inter&Co Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Orlando City SC52%
×Draw22%
Austin26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlando City SC
1.92
Austin
1.31

Orlando City SC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

Orlando City SC
1.78
Austin
0.86

allows per match

Orlando City SC
1.76
Austin
2.07

finishing

Orlando City SC-0.05on par
Austin+0.25scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando City SC ↓

Austin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Orlando City SC or draw
74%
Orlando City SC or Austin
78%
Draw or Austin
48%

Winning margin

Orlando City SC wins by 2+
29%
Austin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Orlando City SC 1+ goals
85%
Orlando City SC 2+ goals
57%
Orlando City SC 3+ goals
30%
Austin 1+ goals
73%
Austin 2+ goals
38%
Austin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Orlando City SC (draw refunded)
66%
Austin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando City SC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.76 · 15 matches

Austin away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.07 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando City SC attack 1.78 + Austin defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.92

Austin attack 0.86 + Orlando City SC defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Orlando City SC scores more
52%
level
22%
Austin scores more
26%

Orlando City SC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Orlando City SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orlando City SC vs Austin

Orlando City SC beat Austin 2-0 in Major League Soccer on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Inter&Co Stadium in Orlando, Florida.