Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orkla vs Surnadal — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Orkla
Orkla
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Surnadal
Surnadal
5/20/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 7Orkla Sparebank Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Orkla42%
×Draw22%
Surnadal37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orkla
1.93
Surnadal
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Orkla
1.31
Surnadal
1.23

allows per match

Orkla
2.38
Surnadal
2.54

finishing

Orkla+0.00on par
Surnadal+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orkla ↓

Surnadal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Orkla or draw
63%
Orkla or Surnadal
78%
Draw or Surnadal
58%

Winning margin

Orkla wins by 2+
23%
Surnadal wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Orkla 1+ goals
85%
Orkla 2+ goals
57%
Orkla 3+ goals
30%
Surnadal 1+ goals
83%
Surnadal 2+ goals
54%
Surnadal 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Orkla (draw refunded)
53%
Surnadal (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orkla at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Surnadal away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orkla attack 1.31 + Surnadal defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.93

Surnadal attack 1.23 + Orkla defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Orkla scores more
42%
level
22%
Surnadal scores more
37%

Orkla at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Orkla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Orkla 1–3 Surnadal

Surnadal beat Orkla 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on May 20, 2024.

The match was played at Orkla Sparebank Stadion in Fannrem.