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Orkla vs Kristiansund II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Orkla
Orkla
FT
0 – 5
Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
4/11/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 1Orkla Maskin Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Orkla47%
×Draw19%
Kristiansund II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orkla
2.44
Kristiansund II
2.06

Orkla creates 18% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

creates per match

Orkla
2.53
Kristiansund II
1.38

allows per match

Orkla
2.75
Kristiansund II
2.35

finishing

Orkla+0.00on par
Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orkla ↓

Kristiansund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Orkla or draw
66%
Orkla or Kristiansund II
81%
Draw or Kristiansund II
53%

Winning margin

Orkla wins by 2+
28%
Kristiansund II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Orkla 1+ goals
91%
Orkla 2+ goals
70%
Orkla 3+ goals
43%
Kristiansund II 1+ goals
87%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
61%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Orkla (draw refunded)
58%
Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orkla at home — creates 2.53, concedes 2.75 · 32 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orkla attack 2.53 + Kristiansund II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.44

Kristiansund II attack 1.38 + Orkla defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Orkla scores more
47%
level
19%
Kristiansund II scores more
34%

Orkla at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Orkla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Orkla 0–5 Kristiansund II

Kristiansund II beat Orkla 5-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on April 11, 2023.

The match was played at Orkla Maskin Arena in Orkanger.