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Orkla vs Bodø / Glimt II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Orkla
Orkla
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bodø / Glimt II
Bodø / Glimt II
10/1/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 22Orkla Sparebank Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Orkla53%
×Draw19%
Bodø / Glimt II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orkla
2.71
Bodø / Glimt II
2.01

Orkla creates 35% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

creates per match

Orkla
2.53
Bodø / Glimt II
1.27

allows per match

Orkla
2.75
Bodø / Glimt II
2.88

finishing

Orkla+0.00on par
Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orkla ↓

Bodø / Glimt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Orkla or draw
71%
Orkla or Bodø / Glimt II
81%
Draw or Bodø / Glimt II
47%

Winning margin

Orkla wins by 2+
34%
Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Orkla 1+ goals
93%
Orkla 2+ goals
75%
Orkla 3+ goals
50%
Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals
87%
Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals
59%
Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Orkla (draw refunded)
65%
Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orkla at home — creates 2.53, concedes 2.75 · 32 matches

Bodø / Glimt II away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orkla attack 2.53 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.71

Bodø / Glimt II attack 1.27 + Orkla defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Orkla scores more
53%
level
19%
Bodø / Glimt II scores more
29%

Orkla at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Orkla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Orkla 5–1 Bodø / Glimt II

Orkla beat Bodø / Glimt II 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Orkla Sparebank Stadion in Fannrem.