Oriku 0–0 Tërbuni Pukë: Result & Stats

Oriku

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tërbuni Pukë

1/28/2023

1st Division · Round 13Fusha Sportive Orikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Oriku51%

×Draw30%

Tërbuni Pukë19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrikuExpected goals in this matchTërbuni Pukë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.64

Oriku

1.25

Tërbuni Pukë

0.64

Oriku creates 95% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

1.28

creates per match

0.51

0.77

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Oriku

1.28

Tërbuni Pukë

0.51

allows per match

Oriku

0.77

Tërbuni Pukë

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oriku+0.00on par

Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriku ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Oriku or draw

81%

Oriku or Tërbuni Pukë

70%

Draw or Tërbuni Pukë

49%

Winning margin

Oriku wins by 2+

24%

Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Oriku 1+ goals

71%

Oriku 2+ goals

36%

Oriku 3+ goals

13%

Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals

47%

Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals

14%

Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Oriku (draw refunded)

73%

Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriku at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 39 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriku attack 1.28 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Oriku defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Oriku scores more

51%

level

30%

Tërbuni Pukë scores more

19%

Oriku at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Oriku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff