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Oriku vs Skenderbeu Korce — 1st Division 2019

Oriku
Oriku
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Skenderbeu Korce
Skenderbeu Korce
9/18/20221st Division1st Division · Round 3Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Oriku33%
×Draw31%
Skenderbeu Korce35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriku
0.95
Skenderbeu Korce
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 29 away

creates per match

Oriku
1.28
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21

allows per match

Oriku
0.77
Skenderbeu Korce
0.62

finishing

Oriku+0.00on par
Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriku ↓

Skenderbeu Korce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Oriku or draw
65%
Oriku or Skenderbeu Korce
69%
Draw or Skenderbeu Korce
67%

Winning margin

Oriku wins by 2+
12%
Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oriku 1+ goals
61%
Oriku 2+ goals
25%
Oriku 3+ goals
7%
Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals
63%
Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals
26%
Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oriku (draw refunded)
48%
Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriku at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 39 matches

Skenderbeu Korce away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriku attack 1.28 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.95

Skenderbeu Korce attack 1.21 + Oriku defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Oriku scores more
33%
level
31%
Skenderbeu Korce scores more
35%

Skenderbeu Korce at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oriku vs Skenderbeu Korce

Oriku beat Skenderbeu Korce 1-0 in 1st Division on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu in Fieri.